Peering into the Future
How will Toronto' changing population change the city?
We have all had the experience of returning to a place we haven't been to in years and discovering that, in our absence, it has changed quite noticeably—a new building here, a new subdivision there or the disappearance of a landmark. While the Toronto we know today will likely look similar in 10 years, its people and neighbourhoods are changing, and along with it, the city' priorities will need to shift. Catalyst looks at how forecast changes will have bearing on the city' social infrastructure.
More people, close quarters
According to Statistics Canada projections, the population of the Toronto area will increase by one million over the next decade to 6.3 million people. Such enormous growth – one-fifth of our current population – demands significant adaptations if the city is to successfully absorb and support its new members over the next 10 years.
One of the most fundamental human needs is shelter. Statistics show that six in ten recent immigrant households live in apartments—more than twice that of non-immigrant households—and they have fewer rooms and bedrooms. Although Toronto has experienced a construction boom over the last few years, only three per cent of new units are rentals. Some condo buyers purchase their units as rental investments, but only six per cent of new condominiums are suitable for families (i.e. three bedrooms). New immigrants, who statistics show are increasingly living in poverty for longer periods of time, are having difficulty finding this most basic of necessities. Toronto rents continue to be among the highest in the country despite high vacancy rates, and vacancy is lowest among two- and three-bedroom units. As more newcomers settle in Toronto, affordable, suitable housing must become an urgent priority.
A bigger, more colourful mosaic
Today, visible minorities—who Statistics Canada classifies as "persons, other than Aboriginal persons, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour"—make up 37 per cent of Toronto' population. In 10 years, they will account for 51 per cent. While the Caucasian population is projected to grow by two per cent over the next decade, Arab, West Asian, South Asian and Korean populations are all expected to increase by more than 50 per cent. Toronto' South Asian population is expected to top one million.
This rapid growth, particularly among populations for whom English is not the mother tongue, will have implications for a number of services. Governments, for example, will need to ensure that education funding and facilities are adequately allocated to neighbourhoods that attract large newcomer populations. Currently, more than 50 per cent of Toronto District School Board students speak a language other than English at home. English as a Second Language initiatives, such as intensive literacy and numeracy development programs for students with gaps in their prior schooling and translation and interpretation services to help schools communicate with families, will have to be given greater priority in the future in order to ensure that all youth in this city have a strong academic foundation.
Aging
In 10 years, the youngest members of our large baby boomer population will turn 55. Today, boomers are beginning to leave the workforce and will continue to do so in large numbers over the next two decades. Seniors are living longer, more active lives and the population of people over 65 years of age is projected to grow from 13 per cent today to 18 per cent in 2020. As our population ages, services geared to this demographic must increase accordingly. Health and well-being services, housing, culture and recreation and other social services will need appropriate investment to serve our booming seniors.
How strong our city will be in a decade is unknown, but one thing is certain: its success is dependent on the actions we take today. The make-up of Toronto will be notably different in 10 years and, just as individuals are encouraged to plan for their future, so too should our leaders for that of the city.
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